FRED Macro

What is FRED?

FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) is the most important source of US economic data. These numbers drive Fed decisions, which drive interest rates, which drive everything — stocks, bonds, FX, commodities.

The key series explained

Rates & Yields

  • DFF / FEDFUNDS — The Fed Funds rate. This is the rate the Fed directly controls. When it goes up, borrowing gets expensive, growth slows, stocks face headwinds. When it goes down, money is cheap, stocks rally.
  • DGS10 — 10-year Treasury yield. The benchmark for mortgage rates and corporate borrowing. Rising = tighter conditions. Falling = easier conditions.
  • DGS2 — 2-year Treasury yield. Moves with Fed rate expectations. If DGS2 is falling, the market expects the Fed to cut.

Yield Curve (most important for recession signals)

Recession warning: When T10Y2Y (10-year minus 2-year yield) goes negative, it means short-term rates are higher than long-term rates. This "inversion" has preceded every recession since 1970 — usually by 12-18 months.

Watch the un-inversion: Paradoxically, the recession often starts after the curve un-inverts (goes back positive), because that's when the Fed starts cutting in response to weakness.

Credit Spreads

  • BAA10Y — The spread between Baa-rated corporate bonds and Treasuries. Wider = market is demanding more compensation for risk = stress rising. This is an early warning system.
  • BAMLH0A0HYM2 — High yield (junk bond) spread. Wider = credit markets are worried. Credit often leads equity — if spreads widen while stocks are still up, be cautious.

Inflation

  • CPIAUCSL — Consumer Price Index. The headline inflation number. Above 3% = the Fed stays hawkish. Below 2% = the Fed can ease. This single number moves markets on release day.
  • T10YIE — 10-year breakeven inflation. What the bond market expects inflation to average. Rising = inflation not under control.

Employment

  • UNRATE — Unemployment rate. Below 4% = strong economy. Rising from a low is the danger signal — unemployment never rises "a little." Once it starts climbing, it tends to accelerate.
  • ICSA — Weekly initial jobless claims. The most timely employment indicator. Consistently above 300K = labor market weakening.

Financial Conditions

  • NFCI — Chicago Fed financial conditions index. Negative = loose conditions (good for stocks). Positive = tight conditions (headwind). A sharp move toward positive is a warning.
  • WALCL — Fed balance sheet size. When the Fed is buying (QE), this rises and markets love it. When they're selling (QT), it shrinks and liquidity drains.

How to use this page

  • Click any series chip to chart it. Shift-click to overlay up to 4 series for comparison.
  • Try overlaying T10Y2Y + UNRATE — watch how unemployment spikes after the yield curve un-inverts.
  • Try DGS10 + BAMLH0A0HYM2 — see how rising rates and widening credit spreads create a double headwind.

Click series to chart. Hold Shift to overlay up to 4 series.

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