CBOE Volatility
What is VIX?
The VIX (often called the "fear gauge") measures how much volatility the market expects over the next 30 days. It's calculated from S&P 500 option prices. Higher VIX = more fear. Lower VIX = complacency. It typically ranges from 12 (calm) to 30+ (panic).
The term structure: contango vs backwardation
The VIX term structure shows expected volatility at different time horizons (9 days, 30 days, 3 months, 6 months).
- Contango (normal) — Short-term vol is lower than long-term vol. The curve slopes upward. Markets are calm, and traders expect the future could be rougher, but right now things are fine. This is the default ~80% of the time.
- Backwardation (alarm) — Short-term vol is higher than long-term vol. The curve inverts. This means fear is happening right now, not just expected in the future. Historically linked to selloffs and crises.
What to look for
Buying opportunity: VIX spikes above 30-35 and the term structure is in backwardation. Historically, these panics are short-lived and stocks recover within weeks. "Be greedy when others are fearful."
Danger zone: VIX is low (below 14) and has been low for a long time. Complacency breeds risk. A vol spike from a low base can be vicious.
- VIX3M/VIX ratio (the second chart) is the clearest contango/backwardation indicator. Below 1.0 = backwardation = near-term stress. This happened in March 2020, Oct 2022, Aug 2024.
- SKEW measures demand for crash protection. High SKEW (above 140) = smart money is buying downside puts even if VIX looks calm. It's a "hidden fear" gauge.
- OVX (oil vol) and GVZ (gold vol) show stress in specific commodity markets. Oil vol spikes during supply disruptions; gold vol spikes during financial crises.
- Put/call ratio above 1.0 = more puts than calls = bearish sentiment. Extreme readings (>1.2 or <0.6) often mark sentiment exhaustion.
Quick VIX cheat sheet
- 12-15: Very calm. Almost too quiet. Watch for complacency.
- 15-20: Normal. Healthy market environment.
- 20-25: Elevated concern. Some unease but not panic.
- 25-30: High fear. Significant selling. Start watching for opportunities.
- 30+: Panic. Historically, buying into VIX spikes above 30 has been profitable on a 1-3 month horizon.